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Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T06:45Z (-4.0h, +4.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Compiled module: CME_KINEMATICS_MODEL_PM2017.

CME speed from CACTUS:
04/09/2017 19:12
min V =  240
max V = 2016

Most pr. speed:
V  = 1465
dV = 350

Duration in seconds:        122947.93
Duration in days:        1.4230084

Acceleration of the CME:  -5.39 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  882.8 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 06/09/2017 Time: 06:45 UT

Lead Time: 37.47 hour(s)
Difference: 16.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2017-09-05T09:40Z

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